Measuring Public Opinion

Direct communication from constituents (letters, calls, emails, and town hall events)
- Rare and does ont reflect the opinions of typical voters - tend to hold the strongest views
Elections
- However, many eligible voters do not vote
  - Turnout:
    - Greatest: general eelections, presidential, gubernatorial, midterm, mayoral
    - Least: primaries, - most dedicated and hold strongest views
  - Up or down opinion is not specific
Trend for november election: many more republican retirements than democratic
- Not going to go well in november
- Anticipating a wave election of Democrats

Measuring Public Opinion: Polling

Focus group - small group of individuals assembled for a conversation, led by a moderator
Scientific poll - polling a select usbset of a constituency with carefully written questions
- Who to sample? who will vote? registered vs likely voters
  - Representative sample reflects demographics of population
  - Cell phones vs land line dialing, who picks up the phone
  - Internet polls arent random and are voluntary and unscientific
  - Random selection - randomly choosing to now over represent any group
  - Weightings adjust results based on differences between the percentages of specific groups in survery and demographic of larger populaiton
  - Margin of error $+ -$ a certain number
  - Mass survey - 1500 participants, larger than national polls. Larger polls increase certainty at a cost

Direct communication from constituents (letters, calls, emails, town hall events)
- Rare and does not reflect the opinions of typical voters, tend to hold the strongest views
Elections
- However, many eligible voters do not vote
  - Turnout is greatest for general elections and primaries
  - Up or down opinion, not specific

Focus group - small group of individuals assembled for a conversation, led by a moderator
Scientific poll - polling a select subset of a constituency with carefully written questions (question order, wording is important)
- Who to sample? who will vote
- Representative sample
- How to sample, phones, etc
- Internet polls, not random, voluntary, unscientific
- Random selection in order to not over or under represent a group
- Weighting - adjust results based on percentages of groups
- Margin of error - plus minus a few percent
- Mass survey - about 1500 partipants, larger polls increase certainty at a cpst

Surveys that allow anyone to participate are not random or scientific and are not reliable
Straw poll - tally of support among people attending an event
Entrance survey - poll of people coming into an event
Exit poll - survey conducted outside a polling place, asked who they voted for and why
- Information held until all polls close
- Used to understand voting patterns
Benchmark poll - taken at the beginning of a political campaign
Tracking poll - determines level of support for a candidate or issue over time
Push poll - disguised as a survey, presents voters with negative views of opponent
Any poll - How truthful are the responses? distrust of media, 2016 election

Personal responsibility and work opportunity act of 1996 - contained many popular reforms to welfare
- 5 year limit on benefits, work requirements for welfare after 2 years
Tax cuts and jobs act of 2017 - 30R% approval
Big Beautiful Bill - 38% approval
Tariffs - 36% approval
Long term benefits, especially economic favoranolity in media and public may catch up
- Risky, continued unpopularity and anti-incumbency sentiment
Legislation may be important to donors